October 2009

Inventory levels of single family detached homes in San Ramon continue to drop as we move into late fall.

The inventory absorption rate for single family detached homes in San Ramon is now less than 2 weeks which is consistant with the downward trend highlighted in my last San Ramon real estate blog. We see this trend continuing through year end and even through the first quarter of 2010. From a buyers perspective, the current market has created an environment where multiple offers are the norm. Especially in those homes priced under $800K. We are seeing fewer and fewer bank owned homes coming on the market and many banks are now working with potential short sale sellers to try and keep them in their homes via a loan modification. Because of the drop in home prices over the last few years we are seeing many sellers postpone the sale of thier homes until the home prices come back. I personall don’t think we willsee prices back to pre2006 levels for several years. So if you want to sell NOW IS THE TIME. Especially if the current value of your home is less than $800K.

Current San Ramon Statistics:

As of today there are only 75 active listings for single family detached homes in San Ramon. The average list price for these active listings is $978,516 with a high of $4,990,000 and a low of $375,000. The average price per square foot is $410 and the average days on market is 74. There are 184 pending sales with an average list price of $745,889. The highest priced pending was listed at $1,700,000 and the lowest at $315,000. The average price per square foot is at $292 and the average days on market at 41 days.

What’s new with the Danville Real Estate Market? Great question, the following is an analysis of the market as of October 26, 2009

The inventory absorption rate of detached single family homes in Danville continues to drop. As of today we are at 1.65 months which is down from the last Danville real estate post. In fact at the mid to low price points we are seeing a sellers market.  I expect this trend to continue through the holidays and into the first quarter of 2010 with inventory rising slowly in Q2 of 2010. One of the challenges we face today is the lack of inventory to satisfy the demand from buyers looking to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit for first time home buyers and the very low interest rates. Both of these incentives have some chance of going away soon. In fact unless our legislatures extend the time limit on the credit, it will go away as of November 30, 2009. There is also much speculation that we will see interest rates on the rise in 2010. My recommendation is if you plan on selling anytime in the next 2-3 years you should list your home now.

Current Danville statistics:

There are 142 active listings for single family detached homes in Danville with an average list price of $1,259,046. The highest price listing is at $4,500,000 and the lowest at $499,000. The average price per square foot for these active listings is $417. The average days on market is 105. There are 86 pending listings in Danville with an average list price of $967,327 and a high of $4,480,000 and a low of $475,000.

The inventory of residential homes on the market in the East Bay, which includes Contra Costa and Alameda Counties, is only a fraction of what it was last year. This has dramatically changed the landscape for buyers and sellers. In this video we explain the current market and what you NEED to know to increase your likelihood of success.

The attached graph demonstrates very clearly what has happened to the inventory levels for homes in Alameda and Contra Costa County.

Over the past few months I have been posting articles and blogs letting everyone know that inventory is trending down. What we find is that we are only at less than 50% of theinventory levels from October 2008. In addition we have seen the number of REO and Short Sale Listings drop. There is some concern that this trend will continue which will serve to put upward pressure on prices and cause many buyers who are using FHA and VA loans to be locked out of the market. This is a valid concern, however there are many pending foreclosures looming that should start hitting the market early next year. While I don’t believe that inventory levels will spike up, I do believe that we will see an upward trend through next year. The message here is if you are considering selling your home, now would be a good time.

Total_Active_Listings_Alameda_ContraCostaCounties

The real estate market for single family detached homes in Alamo is still much slower than that of Danville and San Ramon

With an inventory absorption rate of 3.76 months, the market in Alamo has yet to pick up. Unlike the Town of Danville with an absorption rate of 1.5 months and San Ramon with an absorption rate of 2 weeks, the Alamo market continues to plod along. A major reason behind the difference is the price per square foot in Alamo as compared to Danville and San Ramon. Alamo demands a higher price per square foot and many of the buyers are opting for value. So we are seeing a large majority of homes selling in the low to mid price points. Also, in conversations with potential buyers we are finding that they either want a home that is completely remodelled or one that needs to be completely remodelled. This has created a condition where the homes priced betweeen $1,000,000 and $1,300,000 are just sitting. I discuss this in a video blog I released about the Tweener homes in Danville. I really don’t see this condition changing any time soon so the message to those selling homes within this tweener price point is to be patient with offers and agressive with pricing.

The current Alamo statistics for single family detached homes are:

There are 113 active listings in Alamo for single family detached homes the average list price for these homes is $2,042,142 with a high of $38,000,000 and a low of $599,000. The average price per square foot is $442 and the average days on market is 138 days. There are 30 pending sales with an average list price of $1,287,676 and a high of $3,375,000 and a low of $599,000. The average price per square foot for these pending sales is$363 and the average days on market is 84.

The inventory levels for detached single family homes in San Ramon is now less than 2 weeks

What we are seeing in San Ramon is similar, but more extreme, to the falling inventory numbers throughout most of the state. As I mentioned in my Danville Real Estate blog, the inventory levels have consistently come down to the point where some buyers are opting to pull out of the market and wait. Some reasons for the limited inventory are that there has been a moratorium on foreclosures which has severely cut the numbers of foreclosed homes being listed. The banks are attempting more loan modifications now and this is serving to at least postpone many potential short sale listings, and many would be sellers are deciding that they do not want to sell when so much of their perceived equity has evaporated over the last few years. All of these things are magnified by the fact that there are many buyers trying to take advantage of low home prices, great interest rates, and a soon to be eliminated “First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit”.

Current statistics:

There are 80 active listings for detached single family home in San Ramon with an average list price of $940,284, a high of $4,990,000, and a low of $365,000. The average price per square foot is $404 and the average days on market is 62 days. There are 180 pending sales for single family detached homes in San Ramon. The average list price for these sales is $768,308 with a high of $1,700,000 and a low of $449,000. The average price per square foot for these pending sales is $291 with the average days on market of 45 days.

The real estate market for single family detached homes in Danville continues to move forward with low inventory.

We have seen inventory numbers slowly decline over the last several months. This condition has caused the absoprtion rate to see a slow decline to it’s current level at 1.73 months. Just 2 weeks ago we were at an even 2 months.  In addition we are starting to see more of the homes priced over $1,000,000 now sell. When looking at the 83 Pending sales, there are 20 that were listed at over $1,000,000. This is a statistical increase over the number of $1,000,000 homes sold just last month as reported in my Danville Real Estate blog from last month. This is different than the San Ramon Market where inventory absorption has been under a month for some time. This downward in inventory trend shoud continue through the holiday season and winter. The only variable here is the large number of homes that are near foreclosure and what the banks will do with these homes.

Current Statistics:

There are 144 active listings for single family detached homes in Danville. The average list price for these homes is $1,303,269 with a high of $4,500,000 and a low of $499,000. The average price per square foot for these active listings is $422 and the average days on market is 106.  There are 83 pending sales in Danville for single family detached homes. The average list price for the pending sales is $975,522 with a high of $4,480,000 and a low of $475,000. The average price per square foot is $367 and the average days on market is 70 days.