The inventory levels of active listings for single family detached homes in Danville continues it’s downward trend.
The current inventory absorption rate for Danville is at 1.3 months which is down from my post on Danville Real Estate just two weeks ago. We are also seeing the surrounding areas of Alamo and San Ramon have declining inventory. The holiday season traditionally has seen smaller inventory levels however, this downward trend began a year ago. The more relavent reasons for the decline in inventory are the fact that there are far fewer bank owned and short sale homes on the market and because many home sellers have decided not to sell their home due to the decline in value over the last several years. Many of these would be sellers have instead decided to stay and remodel.
Current Danville Statistics:
There are 117 active listings for single family detached homes in Danville. The average list price for these active properties is $1,288,604 with the highest priced home listed at $3,994,000 and the lowest priced listed at $466,900. The average price per square foot is $427 and the average days on market is 106. There are 90 pending sales in Danville with an average list price of $931,497. The highest priced pending sale was listed at $2,150,000 and the lowest was priced at $529,000. The average price per square foot for these pending sales is $333 and the average days on market is 66 days. There were 27 closed sales during the month of November with the average sales price being at $1,013,638. The highest priced sale was at $3,940,000 and the lowest at $573,000. The average price per square foot for these sales is $387 and the average days on market was 59 days.
In a Washington Post article from November 21 titled “Expect Tightening From the FHA” it was reported that changes are being considered to reduce the risk to the FHA for loans and to help re-establish compliance with Governmental requirements.
The following video summarizes the article and gives some advice for those looking to utilize an FHA Loan in the near future. This not only affects First Time Home Buyers but any Buyer looking to take advantage of this loan. We don’t see these loans being utilized very often Danville, San Ramon, or Alamo Real Estate but we do see them often for homes priced under $500,000.
The inventory levels of residential real estate in Contra Costa and Alameda County continue their downward trend.
As of November 20 the active inventory levels in the East Bay Counties of Alameda and Contra Costa are now at approximately40% of the inventory levels in October 2008. What we are finding is that because of the substantial reduction in home values during the recession many would be sellers are opting to postpone a home sale or are rethinking a move altogether and in fact many are performing renovations and remodels instead. Additionally we find that the number of bank owned and short sale homes have dropped at roughly the same percentage as the overall active inventory numbers. In my blog from last month I suggested that this trend will continue at least through Q1 or Q2 of 2010 and I see no reason to revise my prediction. The interesting thing is that we are seeing homes at the higher price points sitting while the lower priced homes are moving fairly quickly. In fact the inventory absorption rate for San Ramon single family homes is now at less that 2 weeks. In Danville we are seeing absorption rates at just over a month and in Alamo at about 1.5 months.
My recommendation is that if you are considering selling your home I suggest that strongly consider listing it now. Low inventory levels means less competition and the potential of multiple offers. You can opt to wait but one thing to consider is that there is a large number of potential foreclosures looming. It is unclear how the banks will handle these homes. I don’t believe that they will just dump them on the market and will list them slowly however this will be entirely up to the banks. Also, there are many incentives for buyers now with interest rates still very low and thefirst time home buyer credit extended to April 2010.
Over the last several months we have seen the real estate market in Alamo lag the surrounding communities of Danville and San Ramon in terms of inventory absorption rate.
In looking at the most recent statistics for single family detached homes in Alamo we see that the inventory absorption rate has dropped from approx. 3.5 months to 2.5 months. The reduction in absorption rate is consistent with an overall trend in the San Ramon Valley where inventory has been dropping and sales have been increasing. We feel that this trend will continue at least through the first quarter of 2010 or until we see larger quantities of bank owned homes listed for sale. As I pointed out in a past blog, the overall inventory of active homes on the market within the counties of Alameda and Contra Costa is less than half of what is was a year ago. And in spite of all the projections regarding the actual number of homeowners in default we have seen inventory of REO and Short Sale homes decrease dramatically as well.
Current Alamo Real Estate Statistics:
There currently are 96 active listings for single family detached homes in Alamo. The average list price for these active listings is 2,186,968 with the highest listing priced at $38,000,000 and the lowest at $599,000. The average price per square foot is at $441 and the average days on market is 143. There are 37 pending sales in Alamo with an average list price of $1,233,347 and the highest priced being at $2,345,000. The lowest priced pending sale is listed at $694,900 with the average price per square foot at $350. The average days on market is at 93 days. From October 1, 2009 until November 18, 2009 there have been 19 closed sales of single family detached homes in Alamo. The average sales price for these homes was $1,174,868 with the highest being at $2,150,000 and the lowest at $735,000. The average price per square foot for these sold homes was $392 and the average days on market was 72 days.
With an inventory absorption rate of 1.5 months, the Danville Real Estate Market continues to demonstrate brisk sales at the lower price points
As we have reported over the last few months, the Danville market become somewhat of a Seller’s Market at price points below $800,ooo. With the homes priced between $900K-$1.3 Million sitting for a while. Ironically we are seeing homes priced over $1.3 Million selling at a faster pace than those at the $1-1.3 Million dollar range. I have blogged about this situations in the past and it is my contention that this in between (Tweener) home is caught between total fixers and highly upgraded showplaces. In contrast we are seeing homes in nearby San Ramon sell very fast and in fact theinventory absorption rate in this area is less than 2 weeks. On the other side of the spectrum we are seeing the homes in Alamo sit longer and in fact the inventory absorption rate is hovering around 3.5 months.
Current Danville Statistics:
In Danville there are currently 128 active listings for single family detached homes. The average price for these active listings is $1,265,343 with the highest at $3,994,000 and the lowest at $466,900. The average price per square foot is at $421 and the average days on market is at 98 days. There are 82 pending Sales in Danville with an average list price of $947,382. The highest priced Pending listing was listed at $2,150,000 and the lowest at $499,000. The average price per square foot for these pending Danville sales is $344 and the average days on market is at 75 days.
The number of active listings on the market in San Ramon continues to drop as we enter the last 6 weeks of 2009.
The current inventory absorption rate for single family detached homes in San Ramon is at less than 2 weeks. This is indicative of a strong sellers market. The San Ramon market is one of the hottest in Contra Costa County and has homes selling significantly faster than homes in Danville and Alamo. In addition the number of bank owned and short sale homes being listed is dropping. Based on the current push to keep people in their homes I dont believe we will see a significant change in inventory levels until Q2 2010. Also, interest rates have taken a drop based on recent economic data which is adding to the number of active buyers currently looking for homes in San Ramon.
The current statistics for San Ramon real estate is as follows:
There are 70 active listings on the market in San Ramon for single family detached homes. The average list price for these homes is at $1,015,770 with the highest listing at $4,998,000 and the lowest at $375,000. The average price per square foot is at $425 and the average days on market is 78. There are 165 pending sales with an average list price of $741,858. The highest price pending listing is at $1,700,000 and the lowest at $315,000. The average price per square foot is $291 and the average days on market at 37 days.
The home mortgage market saw interest rates drop this past week due to a less than positive jobs report. In the video Michael Caires speaks about the effect that economic news has on interest rates and gives his recommendations for the next few months. These reports and information is not limited to the East Bay or the Town of Danville, San Ramon, or Alamo but is a report that is consistent across the country.
The attached video tour is of our new listing in the desireable Camino Verde neighborhood of Danville. This home at 38 Willowview ct. is with walking distance to all 3 schools levels of schooling from grades 1-12 and is within the award winning San Ramon Valley Unified School District. The wonderful home is within 1 mile of the 680 freeway and the charmingDowntown Danville area.
It is hard to believe but the real estate market for low to mid-priced homes in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties looks more like it did in 2003. We are seeing multiple offers, many of which are all cash, and homes selling for over asking price. With low interest rates, the $8000 First Time Home Buyer Credit, coupled with the fact that their are fewer Short Sales and REO homes on the market we are in a Sellers market. The Danville, San Ramon, and Alamo real estate markets are slightly different because of the large segment of high priced homes.The following video explains what is going on and why we are experiencing the market that we are currently in.
Based on the latest economic reports there is some expectation that interest rates will be trending up in the near future. This is a good sign for the economy but a mixed blessing for people looking to buy. We have many people actively looking in Danville, Alamo, and San Ramon and just a 1/4 point higher interest rate will cause them to look at lower priced homes. Take a look at the following video to see what is driving the expectations of higher rates and when we may see them start up.
