2009

The Westside Danville real estate market continues to swing widely in terms of absorption rate

Currently there are 18 active listings in the Westside of Danville which is down from the 25 we saw at the end of December. There are also 2 pending listings which gives us an inventory absorption rate of 9 months. This nine month absorption rate is higher than the 6.52 months that the Town of Danville is currently experiencing but much lower than the rates in December which saw no pendings and 25 active listings. The expectation is that sales will begin to pick up while inventory will stay flat or drop.

Current activity

There are currently 18 active listings within the Westside Danville market. The average list price for these homes is $1,532,005 with the highest priced listing at $3,695,950 and the lowest priced listing at $599,000. The average price per square foot is $485 with the highest at $608.29 and the lowest at $301.61. The average days on market is 121 days with the longest at 293 and the shortest at 3. There are 2 pending listings that had a list price of $915,000 and $1,195,000. The price per square foot for these listings is $331.16, and $543.18. These 2 homes were on the market for 65 days and 8 days.

The real estate market is Danville is continuing to pick up with inventory down and sales up

The Danville market has been very stabile during the economic downturn and has actually improved in terms of a reduced inventory absorption rate. The number of active listings have dropped to 163 and there are 25 pending listings. This gives us an inventory absorption rate of 6.52 months. By all accounts we expect active inventory to drop over the next month or two and sales are expected to be flat at about 25 a month. The smaller sub markets within Danville are seeing dramatic differences. The areas of Greenbrook and Sycamore are performing very close to Danville as a whole while the areas of Westside Danville and Westside Alamo are slower with a longer absorption rate. This will continue to push the absorption rate lower and remove downward pressure on prices.

Current statistics

The average price for the 163 active listings in Danville is at $1,352,966 with the highest price listing at $5,200,000 and the lowest at $585,000. The average price per square foot is at $415 with the highest at $1259.79 and the lowest at $235.26. The average days on market is at 108 with the longest at 643 and the shortest at 3. There are 25 pending listings with an average list price of $934,474 with the highest priced at $1,895,000 and the lowest at $465. The average price per square foot is $369 with the highest at $543.18 and the lowest at $217.82. The average days on market is at 87 with the highest at 274 and the lowest at 0.

The Westside Danville real estate market continues to under perform

The current inventory absorption rate for Westside Danville is at 20 months which is dramatically higher than both Danville as a whole and Westside Alamo. This desireable area has slowed drastically over the last half of 2008. Ironically the total home sales in 2008 were much higher than that of 2007 and prices were stabile at only a 3% decline from the previous year. There is much speculation on the reasons for the slowdown but my educated guess is that many buyers are waiting for prices to come down, and the homes priced between $1,000,000 and $1,200,000 have become less attractive. This attractiveness, or lack of, is that many buyers are either looking for a ‘fixer’ or a home that is move-in ready. The price expectation for fixers on the Westside of Danville is less that $800K. The homes that are move-in ready are usually priced over $1,300,000.

Currently there are 20 active listings in the Westside if Danville. The average price for these listings is $1,471,805 with the highest priced listing at $3,695,950 and the lowest priced at $654,000. The average price per square foot for these listings is $482 with the highest being at $608.29 and the lowest at $320.04. The average days on market is 109 with the longest at 286 and the shortest at 18. There is one pending sale in the Westside of Danville which was listed at $1,195,000. The price per square foot for this pending sale is $543.18 and it was active for 8 days.

The Westside Alamo real estate market has experinced some dramatic swings over the past year

Currently the inventory absorption rate sits at 9 months but over the past several months we have seen the measurement change from a low of 4 months to a high of 20 months. The volatility in this number is to some extent caused by the small number of homes being listed and sold. This market closely resembles that of Westside Danville in terms of total sales and is in contrast to the overall Danville market which has shown great stability.

Current market statistics

There are 18 active listings within the Westside Alamo real estate market which have an average list price of $1,961,818. The highest price active listing is priced at $5,215,000 and the lowest priced is at $599,000. The average price per square foot for these listings is $541 with the highest listed at $1,070.95 and the lowest at $309.03. The average days on market for these listings is 1678 days with the longest at 640 days and the shortest at 19 days. In addition there are 2 pending sales. The list price for these pending sales are $869,000 and $1,495,000. The price per square foot for these homes is $569.46 and $477.64 with the days on market being 109 and 152.

The real estate market in Danville continues to be consistent in that the inventory absorption rate is now at 6.38 months.

The current absorption rate is down from the levels realized in late 2008 of 7-8 months. This in part is due to sellers opting to keep homes off of the market over the holidays and because many would be sellers are now waiting for signs that the Bay Area market has turned. There are some areas within Danville that have not seen the consistency of the entire market in terms of absortion rate. The Westside Danville and Westside Alamo markets have experiences wide swings in inventory while the areas of Sycamore and Greenbrook have performed more in line with the town as a whole.

Current activity in Danville

There are 166 active listings today of detached homes in Danville. The average list price for these homes is $1,364,101 with the highest price listing at $5,200,000 and the lowest at $585,000. The average price per square foot for these active listings is $419 with the highest being at $1,259.79 and the lowest at $251.29. The average days on market is 108 with the longest being at 418 and the shortest at 3 days. There are 26 pending sales in Danville. The average list price for these pending homes is $972,717 with the highest priced pending at $1,895,000 and the lowest priced at $465,000. The average price per square foot for these pending sales is $362 with the highest at $543 and the lowest at $217.82. The average days on market for these homes is 87 with the longest being at 374 and the shortest at 0.

The real estate market in Westside Danville was turbulent to say the least with most homes sales taking place in the first half of the year.

In 2008 there were 80 homes sold with the Westside Danville real estate market. The average list price for these homes was $1,229,623 with an average sold price of $1,190,047. In terms of price per square foot the average list was $510 with the average sold at $494. This represents a sold price 3% under asking price. The highest priced sold home closed at $3,810,000 and the lowest closed for $537,570. The average days on market was 37 with the longest being at 179 and the shortest at 0.  We saw the inventory absorption rate fluxuate from a low of 5 months to an infinate number at the end of the year.

Comparison with 2007

Interestingly enough, the Westside Danville market actually saw more homes sell in 2008 than 2007. And while most of these sales took place in the first half of the year it is drastically different than the overall Danville market and the smaller sub-markets of Greenbrook, Sycamore, and Westside Alamo which saw an overall reduction of sales. The number of homes sold in Westside Danville during 2007 was 51. This indicates an overall increase in sales from 2007 to 2008 of 36%. The average list price per square foot in 2007 was $519 and the sold price was $506. The difference in sold price between 2007 and 2008 shows an overall reduction in price of 3% with homes typically selling at 3% less than asking price.

The real estate market in Westside Alamo slowed from that of 2007

In 2008 there were a total of 26 homes sold. These homes had an average sales price of $1,245,413 with an average list price of $1,300,471. The average list price per square foot was $524 with the average sold price per square foot being at $501. This indicates that the sold price typically went for 10% below asking price. The highest price Westside Alamo home sold for $3,200,000 and the lowest sold for $550,000. The average days on market for these sold homes was 49 with the longest being at 204 and the shortest at 3. This shows a dramatic difference from the Town of Danville which typically had houses sell within 4% of asking price.

Comparison with the 2007 Westside Alamo real estate market

The 26 homes sold in 2008 is dramatically less than the 43 homes sold in 2007 and represents a 40% reduction in total sales. In addition the average price per square foot for listings in 2007 was $533 and the average price per square foot for sold homes was $517 or a 3% drop in average sales price for 2008. The highest price home sold in 2007 closed for $3,550,000 and the lowest priced home sold for $750,000. The average days on market for 2007 was 29 days or 30% shorter than 2008.

The real estate market in Danville for 2008 was as strong as one could hope for given the current economic environment

Within the Danville market we saw an extremely reliable and robust environment for real estate. The inventory absorption consistently hovered around 7 months with prices holding. There were 341 detached homes sold in Danville in 2008. The highest priced home sold closed at $3,810,000 while the lowest priced home sold at $530,000. The average list price per square foot was at $404 per square foot with the average sold price per square foot at $387. This meant on average homes sold for approximately 4% under asking price. The average days on market for sold homes in Danville was 60 days with the longest being at 266 days and the shortest at 0.

As compared with the 454 Danville homes sold in 2007 the number of sales has declined by 25%. We have also seen inventory drop by approximately the same percentage in 2008. The average listing price per square foot was $436 in 2007 and the average sold price per square foot was $426. The difference in price per square foot from 2007 to 2008 shows a reduction of 10%. The areas of Greenbrook and Sycamore have numbers consistent with that of Danville as a whole while the area of Westside Danville and Westside Alamo have shown a more pronounced change.