The real estate market in the East Bay Area has no resemblance what so ever to the market we saw last year at this same time.
As I posted in a previous article, the real estate market in both Alameda and Contra Costa Counties is completely different from just a year ago. As you will see in the attached graph, the inventory levels for active homes is less that 45% of where it was just one year ago. Additionally, we see the number of foreclosures and short sales drop at the same rate. Perhaps the biggest and most dramatic change is in the number of Pending sales. Pendings have increased to the point where the number of Pendings are greater than the number of active listings. This means that the inventory absorption rate is less than one month!! This is consistent with the more localized real estate activity in Danville, San Ramon, and Alamo.
I dont see this trend changing at least through Q1 of 2010. Things that will have an impact on the future of this market are interest rates, which we expect to rise after March 2010, the number of foreclosures and short sales being listed, and the access to mortgages.
